Wednesday, June 30, 2010

The free agent carousel

There are 10 big free agents (Bosh, LeBron, Wade, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Nowitzki, Amare, Boozer, Ray Allen and David Lee) on the market tonight at 12:01 am. All these guys will command probably atleast 13 million a year contracts. No one can sign till July 8 so there will be 8 crazy days of rumors and uncertainty. I have a feeling that most of the guys will declare where they will sign before July 8 and all of these 10 will sign somewhere on July 8th. Without further ado, here go my predictions (please excuse my bulls homerism):

Lebron: Bron is obviously the prize of this summer but he can only end up one place. I think Bron will be back in a Cavs uni next year. He will talk to all the teams and im sure he will even entertain signing somewhere else with bosh or wade. But at the end of the day, someone made the best argument and most convincing argument on why Bron will stay. The greats are the greats (Jordan, Kobe, Magic, Bird, etc) because they won with their team. Doesn't everyone have a lesser view of Shaq because he jumped to so many different teams? He is not included with those greats because he did move around. Lebron wants to be included with the Jordans and Kobes and the only way he will be is if he wins multiple championships with the Cavs. He is staying where he is.

Wade: I actually think there is a 50% chance that Dwade will leave Miami which is higher than i have seen other people say. Once he figures out that Bron will not be coming to South Beach, the question will be can he lure someone else. I think he will end up staying but he will have to listen to other teams pitches because it becomes questionable with Bron in cleveland if the heat can beat the Cavs. He will listen to offers but stay in South Beach.

Bosh: Bosh is for sure out of Toronto. He doesnt get enough publicity for how good he is and he doesnt make the ad money that he would make in a big US city. The big question is whether he is tied to Bron or not? I dont think he although im not sure he wants to be the clear #1 on a team. Bosh has exactly the type of game that compliments Noah. The bulls would be the best place for him because he gets to play along a center that plays defense and does the dirty work. Plus, while Bosh is certainly really good, he will only be better with a good PG getting him the ball like Rose. I believe his decision will come down to the Bulls and Knicks. I calling him a bull on July 8th.

Joe Johnson: He is a very good player but he isnt a franchise player like the above 3 guys. He can be a great #2 guy on a good team and i think he knows that. A post presence will only make him better. I think he will only sign after he sees where the power forwards go. But he is known to like the big city and i think his decision will come down to the bulls or knicks. Call him a bull on July 8th to form a great team of rose, him, deng, bosh, and noah.

Dirk Nowitzki: Dirk may listen to offers but he isnt leaving the Mavs. He just opted out so he can get more money and a longer contract. He might listen to offers but he will say with the mavs. Not much to talk about here.

Amare: He is an interesting case because he is pretty much on the same par as Boozer. Both of those guys will probably not sign until after bosh makes up his mind. Amare is a very talented offensive player and will sell some seats. I'm not sure winning is his main concern as much as money is. I think there is a good chance he could go to the highest bidder (he can actually make more money than Bron/Bosh/Wade because he had a higher salary last year). I can see him in New York, New Jersey or in Miami. Let's call it NY because his old coach is there and they are willing to pay to get some stars.

Boozer: I think he wants to come to the bulls or the heat. He wants to win and will be ok with being a #2 player on a team. He has a good post up game but isnt a great defender so playing next to a center who will do the dirty work would definitely be a plus for carlos. Depending on what bosh does, i think the boozer is the bulls' backup plan and will sign with them if bosh doesnt. Otherwise i believe he is in Miami with Dwade.

Paul Pierce: I think he might be the most interesting free agent on the market because i dont think the celtics will give him a max contract. He is old and probably only has 2 to 3 seasons left as a main scoring option on a team. So, will some team like the knicks, nets, or clippers give him 4 or 5 years to get him in the door to improve their team in the near future? I could definitely see it happening. I think he is gone from the celtics and will end up in New York because he will win you games in the near future and they love to give long term contracts.

Ray Allen: His departure will really signal the end of the Celtics run. I think it will take him a while to sign with a team because im not sure what he wants. Does he want money and years or does he want a chance to win? I could see him going for the money and going to the Nets or Knicks or he could be a backup option for teams that whiff on Joe Johnson like the Hawks. I think he will be Hawk at the end of the day.

David Lee: If i was this guy, i would go with whoever bids the highest. He is a good player but playing in D'Antoni's system and on a terrible team has really inflated his numbers. I think he either stays with the Knicks or jumps ship to the Nets. The Nets need players and Lee would look good along side Brook Lopez. Show him the money new jersey.

Also, Rudy Gay is a free agent and i think he will end up with the Twolves who actually have some talent but desperately need a wing scorer.

What this means is that im predicting bosh and joe johnson to the bulls. If not bosh, then definitely boozer. I hope im right.


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